;;Infectious Disease Model ver. 1 ;;This model simulates the spread of an infectious disease traveling via contact through ;;a randomly moving population. The user can draw walls, buildings, or obstacles in the ;;environment to simulate different environments. breed [healthy] ;;Different breeds of turtles to show heatlh state. breed [infected] breed [sick] breed [immune] breed [dead] globals [ ;; Global variables. total-healthy total-sick total-infected total-immune total-dead ] turtles-own [ ;; Turtle variables. turn-check wall-turn-check incubate sickness terminal-check immune-check ] to building-draw ;; Use the mouse to draw buildings. if mouse-down? [ ask patch mouse-xcor mouse-ycor [ set pcolor grey ]] end to setup ;; Initialize the model. clear-turtles pop-check setup-agents update-globals do-plots end to go ;; Run the model. disease-check repeat 5 [ ask healthy [ fd 0.2 ] display ] repeat 5 [ ask infected [ fd 0.2 ] display ] repeat 5 [ ask sick [ fd 0.2 ] display ] repeat 5 [ ask immune [ fd 0.2 ] display ] update-globals do-plots tick end to setup-agents ;; Setup the begining number of agents and their initial states. set-default-shape healthy "person" set-default-shape infected "person" set-default-shape sick "person" set-default-shape immune "person" set-default-shape dead "caterpillar" ask n-of initial-healthy patches with [pcolor = black] [ sprout-healthy 1 [ set color blue ] ] ask n-of initial-sick patches with [pcolor = black] [ sprout-sick 1 [ set color yellow set sickness disease-period ] ] end to disease-check ;; Check to see if an infected or sick turtle occupies the same patch. ask healthy[ if any? other turtles-here with [color = yellow] [infect] if any? other turtles-here with [color = pink] [infect] wander ] ask sick[ if any? other turtles-here with [color = blue] [infect] wander set sickness sickness - 1 if sickness = 0 [live-or-die] ] ask infected[ if any? other turtles-here with [color = blue] [infect] wander set incubate incubate - 1 if incubate = 0 [get-sick] ] ask immune[wander] end to infect ;; Infect a healthy turtle, test if it is immune and set the incubation timer if it isn't. set immune-check random 100 ifelse immune-check < immune-chance [recover] [ask healthy-on patch-here[ set breed infected set incubate incubation-period] ask infected-on patch-here [set color pink]] end to get-sick ;; Change an infected turtle into an sick turtle and set the disease progression timer. set breed sick set color yellow set sickness disease-period end to terminate ;; Kill a sick turtle who reaches the end of the disease progression and fails the terminal check. set breed dead set color white end to live-or-die ;; Test if the turtle dies from the disease. set terminal-check random 100 ifelse terminal-check < terminal-chance [terminate] [recover] end to recover ;; Change turtle breed to immune. set breed immune set color sky end to wander ;; Random movement for agents. set turn-check random 20 if turn-check > 15 [right-turn] if turn-check < 5 [left-turn] if [pcolor] of patch-ahead 1 != black [wall] end to wall ;; Turn agent away from wall set wall-turn-check random 10 if wall-turn-check >= 6 [wall-right-turn] if wall-turn-check <= 5 [wall-left-turn] end to wall-right-turn ;;Generate a random degree of turn for the wall sub-routine. rt 170 end to wall-left-turn ;;Generate a random degree of turn for the wall sub-routine. lt 170 end to right-turn ;;Generate a random degree of turn for the wander sub-routine. rt random-float 10 end to left-turn ;;Generate a random degree of turn for the wander sub-routine. lt random-float 10 end to update-globals ;;Set globals to current values for reporters. set total-healthy (count healthy) set total-infected (count infected) set total-sick (count sick) set total-immune (count immune) set total-dead (count dead) end to do-plots ;; Update graph. set-current-plot "Population Totals" set-current-plot-pen "Healthy" plot total-healthy set-current-plot-pen "Infected" plot total-infected set-current-plot-pen "Sick" plot total-sick set-current-plot-pen "Immune" plot total-immune set-current-plot-pen "Dead" plot total-dead end to pop-check ;; Make sure total population does not exceed total number of patches. if initial-healthy + initial-sick > count patches [ user-message (word "This simulation only has room for " count patches " agents.") stop ] end ; *** NetLogo 4.1 Model Copyright Notice *** ; ; Copyright 2010 by Michael D. Ball. All rights reserved. ; ; Permission to use, modify or redistribute this model is hereby granted, ; provided that both of the following requirements are followed: ; a) this copyright notice is included. ; b) this model will not be redistributed for profit without permission ; from Michael D. Ball. ; Contact Michael D. Ball for appropriate licenses for redistribution for ; profit. ; ; To refer to this model in academic publications, please use: ; Ball, M. (2010). Infectious Disease Model ver. 1. ; http://www.personal.kent.edu/~mdball/netlogo_models.htm. ; The Center for Complexity in Health, ; Kent State University at Ashtabula, Ashtabula, OH. ; ; In other publications, please use: ; Copyright 2010 Michael D. Ball. All rights reserved. ; See http://www.personal.kent.edu/~mdball/netlogo_models.htm ; for terms of use. ; ; *** End of NetLogo 4.1 Model Copyright Notice *** @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 210 10 649 470 16 16 13.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -16 16 -16 16 0 0 1 ticks BUTTON 25 10 89 43 Setup setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 102 10 165 43 Go go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL SLIDER 15 225 187 258 initial-healthy initial-healthy 0 1000 427 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 15 265 187 298 initial-sick initial-sick 1 1000 1 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 15 305 187 338 incubation-period incubation-period 1 20 10 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 15 345 187 378 disease-period disease-period 1 20 10 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 15 385 187 418 immune-chance immune-chance 0 100 12 1 1 % HORIZONTAL SLIDER 15 425 187 458 terminal-chance terminal-chance 0 100 49 1 1 % HORIZONTAL BUTTON 50 55 142 88 Draw Walls building-draw T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 10 95 100 128 Clear Turtles clear-turtles NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 110 95 187 128 Clear All clear-all NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL PLOT 660 10 1130 410 Population Totals NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true PENS "Healthy" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "Infected" 1.0 0 -2064490 true "Sick" 1.0 0 -1184463 true "Immune" 1.0 0 -13791810 true "Dead" 1.0 0 -16777216 true MONITOR 680 425 767 470 Total Healthy total-healthy 17 1 11 MONITOR 870 425 962 470 Total Infected total-infected 17 1 11 MONITOR 970 425 1032 470 Total Sick total-sick 17 1 11 MONITOR 775 425 862 470 Total Immune total-immune 17 1 11 MONITOR 1040 425 1112 470 Total Dead total-dead 17 1 11 @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- This model simulates the spread of an infectious disease traveling via contact through a randomly moving population. The user can draw walls, buildings, or obstacles in the environment to simulate different environments. HOW IT WORKS ------------ The agents wander randomly throughout the simulation grid. If a healthy agent occupies a patch with a sick or infected agent, the healthy agent has a chance to become infected. This is controled by the immune-chance slider. A healthy agent that does not become infected, becomes immune. An agent remains infected for a period determined by the incubation-period slider. During this time, the agent is contagious. Once the incubation period ends, the agent becomes sick. Sick agents remain contagious through the length of the disease period (controlled by the disease-period slider). At the end of the disease period, the agent either dies or recovers and becomes immune. This is determined by the terminal-chance slider. HOW TO USE IT ------------- 1. Use the Draw Walls button to create different landscapes for the agents to move around. 2. Set the initial healthy and sick populations. 3. Set the incubation and disease period to desired levels. 4. Set the chance for immunity and terminal illness. 5. Click Setup to populate the simulation grid. 6. Click Go to set the agents in motion. Note: Click Clear Turtles to remove agents and leave landscape in place. Click Clear All to restart from scratch. EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- This model is for infectious disease that spreads via contact. Future models will show the progression of air-borne, food-borne and fixed source contact diseases. CREDITS AND REFERENCES ---------------------- This model was developed as a part of research work for The Center for Complexity in Health at Kent State University Ashtabula. @#$#@#$#@ default true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 5 40 250 150 205 260 250 airplane true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 135 15 120 60 120 105 15 165 15 195 120 180 135 240 105 270 120 285 150 270 180 285 210 270 165 240 180 180 285 195 285 165 180 105 180 60 165 15 arrow true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 0 150 105 150 105 293 195 293 195 150 300 150 box false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 285 285 225 285 75 150 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 135 15 75 150 15 285 75 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 75 15 225 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 135 15 75 Line -16777216 false 150 135 285 75 bug true 0 Circle -7500403 true true 96 182 108 Circle -7500403 true true 110 127 80 Circle -7500403 true true 110 75 80 Line -7500403 true 150 100 80 30 Line -7500403 true 150 100 220 30 butterfly true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 209 199 225 225 225 255 195 270 165 255 150 240 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 89 198 75 225 75 255 105 270 135 255 150 240 Polygon -7500403 true true 139 148 100 105 55 90 25 90 10 105 10 135 25 180 40 195 85 194 139 163 Polygon -7500403 true true 162 150 200 105 245 90 275 90 290 105 290 135 275 180 260 195 215 195 162 165 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 255 135 225 120 150 135 120 150 105 165 120 180 150 165 225 Circle -16777216 true false 135 90 30 Line -16777216 false 150 105 195 60 Line -16777216 false 150 105 105 60 car false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 300 180 279 164 261 144 240 135 226 132 213 106 203 84 185 63 159 50 135 50 75 60 0 150 0 165 0 225 300 225 300 180 Circle -16777216 true false 180 180 90 Circle -16777216 true false 30 180 90 Polygon -16777216 true false 162 80 132 78 134 135 209 135 194 105 189 96 180 89 Circle -7500403 true true 47 195 58 Circle -7500403 true true 195 195 58 caterpillar true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 210 165 225 135 255 105 270 90 270 75 255 75 240 90 210 120 195 135 165 165 135 165 105 150 75 150 60 135 60 120 45 120 30 135 15 150 15 180 30 180 45 195 45 210 60 225 105 225 135 210 150 210 165 195 195 180 210 Line -16777216 false 135 255 90 210 Line -16777216 false 165 225 120 195 Line -16777216 false 135 165 180 210 Line -16777216 false 150 150 201 186 Line -16777216 false 165 135 210 150 Line -16777216 false 165 120 225 120 Line -16777216 false 165 106 221 90 Line -16777216 false 157 91 210 60 Line -16777216 false 150 60 180 45 Line -16777216 false 120 30 96 26 Line -16777216 false 124 0 135 15 circle false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 circle 2 false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 cow false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 200 193 197 249 179 249 177 196 166 187 140 189 93 191 78 179 72 211 49 209 48 181 37 149 25 120 25 89 45 72 103 84 179 75 198 76 252 64 272 81 293 103 285 121 255 121 242 118 224 167 Polygon -7500403 true true 73 210 86 251 62 249 48 208 Polygon -7500403 true true 25 114 16 195 9 204 23 213 25 200 39 123 cylinder false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 dot false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 90 90 120 face happy false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 255 90 239 62 213 47 191 67 179 90 203 109 218 150 225 192 218 210 203 227 181 251 194 236 217 212 240 face neutral false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 7 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 195 240 225 face sad false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 168 90 184 62 210 47 232 67 244 90 220 109 205 150 198 192 205 210 220 227 242 251 229 236 206 212 183 fish false 0 Polygon -1 true false 44 131 21 87 15 86 0 120 15 150 0 180 13 214 20 212 45 166 Polygon -1 true false 135 195 119 235 95 218 76 210 46 204 60 165 Polygon -1 true false 75 45 83 77 71 103 86 114 166 78 135 60 Polygon -7500403 true true 30 136 151 77 226 81 280 119 292 146 292 160 287 170 270 195 195 210 151 212 30 166 Circle -16777216 true false 215 106 30 flag false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 60 15 75 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 90 150 270 90 90 30 Line -7500403 true 75 135 90 135 Line -7500403 true 75 45 90 45 flower false 0 Polygon -10899396 true false 135 120 165 165 180 210 180 240 150 300 165 300 195 240 195 195 165 135 Circle -7500403 true true 85 132 38 Circle -7500403 true true 130 147 38 Circle -7500403 true true 192 85 38 Circle -7500403 true true 85 40 38 Circle -7500403 true true 177 40 38 Circle -7500403 true true 177 132 38 Circle -7500403 true true 70 85 38 Circle -7500403 true true 130 25 38 Circle -7500403 true true 96 51 108 Circle -16777216 true false 113 68 74 Polygon -10899396 true false 189 233 219 188 249 173 279 188 234 218 Polygon -10899396 true false 180 255 150 210 105 210 75 240 135 240 house false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 45 120 255 285 Rectangle -16777216 true false 120 210 180 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 120 150 15 285 120 Line -16777216 false 30 120 270 120 leaf false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 210 135 195 120 210 60 210 30 195 60 180 60 165 15 135 30 120 15 105 40 104 45 90 60 90 90 105 105 120 120 120 105 60 120 60 135 30 150 15 165 30 180 60 195 60 180 120 195 120 210 105 240 90 255 90 263 104 285 105 270 120 285 135 240 165 240 180 270 195 240 210 180 210 165 195 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 195 135 240 120 255 105 255 105 285 135 285 165 240 165 195 line true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 300 line half true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 150 pentagon false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 15 15 120 60 285 240 285 285 120 person false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 180 195 195 90 Rectangle -7500403 true true 127 79 172 94 Polygon -7500403 true true 195 90 240 150 225 180 165 105 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 60 150 75 180 135 105 plant false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 135 90 165 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 255 90 210 45 195 75 255 135 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 255 210 210 255 195 225 255 165 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 180 90 135 45 120 75 180 135 210 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 180 165 210 225 180 255 120 210 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 105 90 60 45 45 75 105 135 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 105 165 135 225 105 255 45 210 60 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 90 120 45 150 15 180 45 165 90 sheep false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 151 225 180 285 Rectangle -7500403 true true 47 225 75 285 Rectangle -7500403 true true 15 75 210 225 Circle -7500403 true true 135 75 150 Circle -16777216 true false 165 76 116 square false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270 square 2 false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270 Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 60 240 240 star false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 151 1 185 108 298 108 207 175 242 282 151 216 59 282 94 175 3 108 116 108 target false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 Circle -7500403 true true 60 60 180 Circle -16777216 true false 90 90 120 Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60 tree false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 118 3 94 Rectangle -6459832 true false 120 195 180 300 Circle -7500403 true true 65 21 108 Circle -7500403 true true 116 41 127 Circle -7500403 true true 45 90 120 Circle -7500403 true true 104 74 152 triangle false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255 triangle 2 false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255 Polygon -16777216 true false 151 99 225 223 75 224 truck false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 4 45 195 187 Polygon -7500403 true true 296 193 296 150 259 134 244 104 208 104 207 194 Rectangle -1 true false 195 60 195 105 Polygon -16777216 true false 238 112 252 141 219 141 218 112 Circle -16777216 true false 234 174 42 Rectangle -7500403 true true 181 185 214 194 Circle -16777216 true false 144 174 42 Circle -16777216 true false 24 174 42 Circle -7500403 false true 24 174 42 Circle -7500403 false true 144 174 42 Circle -7500403 false true 234 174 42 turtle true 0 Polygon -10899396 true false 215 204 240 233 246 254 228 266 215 252 193 210 Polygon -10899396 true false 195 90 225 75 245 75 260 89 269 108 261 124 240 105 225 105 210 105 Polygon -10899396 true false 105 90 75 75 55 75 40 89 31 108 39 124 60 105 75 105 90 105 Polygon -10899396 true false 132 85 134 64 107 51 108 17 150 2 192 18 192 52 169 65 172 87 Polygon -10899396 true false 85 204 60 233 54 254 72 266 85 252 107 210 Polygon -7500403 true true 119 75 179 75 209 101 224 135 220 225 175 261 128 261 81 224 74 135 88 99 wheel false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 3 3 294 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 Line -7500403 true 150 285 150 15 Line -7500403 true 15 150 285 150 Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60 Line -7500403 true 216 40 79 269 Line -7500403 true 40 84 269 221 Line -7500403 true 40 216 269 79 Line -7500403 true 84 40 221 269 x false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 270 75 225 30 30 225 75 270 Polygon -7500403 true true 30 75 75 30 270 225 225 270 @#$#@#$#@ NetLogo 4.1.1 @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ default 0.0 -0.2 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1 1.0 0.0 0.2 0 1.0 0.0 link direction true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 150 90 180 Line -7500403 true 150 150 210 180 @#$#@#$#@ 1 @#$#@#$#@